You’ve probably seen photos or videos of huge homeless encampments in America’s cities, like the ones in this Daily Mail article about Portland.
You’ve probably seen footage of brazen shoplifting in San Francisco, and heard about how retailers like Wal-Mart, REI, and Nordstrom are closing urban stores.
You’ve probably read about growing urban crime or seen disturbing videos such as when a group of teens and young adults were running amok in Chicago, for example.
You’ve probably heard about how remote work is threatening the future of downtowns, with half or more of workers not coming into the office anymore.
You’ve probably heard about the population exodus from urban centers during Covid, and about population drops in formerly booming places like San Francisco and Portland.
This drum beat of bad news seems to have created a sense among some that cities are doomed. There’s certainly a class of people who would welcome this, and so they are motivated to share all the bad news and emphasize the ways that big cities are in big trouble.
However, I’d like to encourage people to have a sense of perspective here. The very nature of the news cycle (e.g., “if it bleeds, it leads”) selects for bad news. It’s very easy for people without on the ground knowledge to draw conclusions that may not be warranted.
I have studied cities professionally. I also have visited a number of big cities recently. In the last two months I’ve been to NYC twice, Chicago, and Washington. In each case, the challenges are evident.
But if all you had to go on in judging these cities is what you saw when you visited them, you’d never think they were in danger of collapse. The north side neighborhoods of Chicago still sparkle. New York City is lively. Even downtown Washington has improved a lot since last summer.
This is not the early 1990s when even people in New York’s most upscale neighborhoods felt like they had to carry “mugger money.” Most people are not going to experience that kind of crime today.
Additionally, rents remain very high - they’ve even gone up a lot in NYC recently. For sale housing has held up well in most places. And the hotels are full (90% occupancy in New York). Here in Indianapolis, for example, downtown apartments are essentially completely leased up.
If you visit the central business districts of these cities, you will definitely notice the malaise. But get out into the neighborhoods, and things are different. While many lower income areas are experiencing serious problems, more middle class and affluent areas are doing very well.
This idea that the city’s are doomed is an example of the apocalyptic mindset to which we so easily fall prey. That’s one reason I always warn against it. Yes, we have a lot of serious problems in America. But I’m not betting on a collapse. It could happen. I’m not saying it’s impossible, but it doesn’t seem very likely.
To be sure, don’t listen to the urban boosters either. There has definitely been a shift to the suburbs, and even the exurban or rural regions beyond them. We see it in retail, for example.
Cities are facing a series of real challenges, which I group under three headings: remote work, high housing costs, and bad governance (resulting in part from a toxic cultural-political climate). These could put a cloud over them for years, and in some cases could lead to what some have been calling the “urban doom loop.”
But as Adam Smith said, there’s a lot of ruin in a nation. Similarly, there’s a lot of ruin in a city. Especially places like NYC and SF, which have incredibly powerful, unique assets and environments, big forces sustain them. Even at its low point in the 1970s, NYC had only lost 10% of its population from peak.
This is not to encourage people to stay in the city or invest in the city. I’m not taking a position one way or the other on that. But those who wouldn’t mind seeing a few big blue cities cut down to size, or who are drawing conclusions just based on some of the worst headlines, I’d encourage you to take a more comprehensive view of what’s going on.
I just wanted to put out this post in order to give you some market insight.
Cover image credit: By Noah Friedlander - CC BY-SA 4.0
Good thoughts. I agree with the importance of remaining engaged with reality, which tends to be more nuanced than the visions produced by echo chambers.
It's not always appreciated how broad-based the urban decline was during the 1960s-1990s crisis. For example, while Atlanta metro was booming during this period (growing around 30% per decade), the city itself was rotting and didn't surpass its 1970 peak until 2020(!) Lots of cities we think of as not exactly hollowed out or Rustbelt are nonetheless less populated than they were decades ago. Boston, Philadelphia, et al.
I recall being told by "experts" circa 2010 that the Millennials were showing a strong preference for the city and the Zoomers would double down on it, leading to a trend towards re-urbanization. That petered out. It turns out there is going to be a sustained push and pull -- cities have a unique appeal that will always enrapture some, but they also have unique problems. Cities aren't going away, but I doubt we're ever going back to the pre-1960s urbanism because the factors that made city life less desirable after that time aren't going away on a sustained, nationwide basis.
A key issue seems to be: whether or not one has the means and resources to avoid having to take public transit. John McWhorter is far from a reactionary or alarmist, but his description of the NYC subway sounds quite alarming indeed:
"I can testify that these days, about once every week one can expect to be in a car with a person, almost always male, who is actively menacing other passengers... But the problem is that in seeking this negative attention, these men are often not plangent but furious. They walk up and down the subway car yelling into individual faces. They stomp. They ball their fists. They curse. These are not just troubled supplicants who occasionally get a little pushy. They are men who make you genuinely afraid that you are about to be assaulted. And in my experience these men are most likely to be directly confrontational with women.... Men in a state of potentially violent agitation are now so common on the subway that I am wary of having my daughters, ages 8 and 11, ride with me, especially after an incident when one such man singled us out and I had to quietly instruct my girls to keep their eyes down and not move."
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/09/opinion/jordan-neely-subway-death.html?unlocked_article_code=8n7Vf17S9dVeKaNF1KMeOE8ljdCY7mrBGhSq9CZ9xedbZwtZamq-Z_XNoZs5mN5PNJRvAyEsamJZPtFTA7g7pj_Xs0WAioB_ly9N8EV9UfI0JMozo3Vz1rDe7ITApdL7ViWvHz3XXsalp63M7pAgEQFFyWys0Kx8ljuLy-tf-zqaNXB9kvy2OOF9cchcKFw_ZXCZYm8R3QM8dORLhFgF1n05Akx7TFV_vipMGZKT6ZsDVJSudd5slKUGAHg6rEzLvZhLfGP2yb0PV-dl3Ri-ctWISRWyOO6I0JoIP87sXh7sWZpDZyfLpxtev4UrsUBBDiWG1M_f246f83HVQM3DfsAv&smid=url-share