I also think that Aaron is missing the big picture. Trump is restructuring the basis on which the United States deals with other countries by basing it on mutual self-interest, which is the most and maybe the only durable foundation for international relations.
As an example, our natural allies in the Middle East are those nations that oppose radical Islam, want a stable equilibrium in the region, and are interested in economic development. Trump has clearly identified those as America’s priority interests as well, as evidenced by his speech in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. Trump's diplomacy based on mutual interest produced the Abraham Accords in his first term, and there is a good chance those accords will expand to include, most prominently, Saudi Arabia – assuming either negotiations or Israeli military action can restore stability in Gaza.
If the Abraham Accords are expanded, no new post-Trump Administration will abandon them, any more than Biden abandoned the original arrangement. It’s true that Biden attempted to reverse Trump’s Iranian policy, and resurrect Obama’s, but that went nowhere; and now that the Israelis and the United States have decimated Iran’s proxy network and destroyed its nuclear program, it is not likely to happen again.
In Europe, the NATO alliance is growing in strength because of the admission of the Finns and Swedes, because Europe is relying on American rather than Russian energy, and because the other NATO allies, and especially Germany, are increasing their defense spending. Trump has been arguing for the latter two since his first term, and the Europeans have now accepted them. They also recognize that it is in their interests to stabilize Eastern Europe by finding an end to the Ukraine war. There is tension about the terms of any cease fire, but the recent Oval Office meeting between Trump and the other NATO leaders was a striking example of the renewed strength of American leadership.
In Trump's first term, he discontinued the policy of engagement with China and recognizing that the U.S. is in an essentially adversarial position with Beijing. That was welcomed by our formal allies and other countries like Vietnam. The Administration is continuing to strengthen those partnerships, as for example by welcoming South Korean investment in America’s shipbuilding industry and encouraging Japan as it becomes more assertive in its own defense and in defense of the region.
Again, Biden didn’t reverse the fundamental redirection of our China policy which Trump established. Neither will any succeeding Administration, because it is based on a recognition of vital national interests that our allies share.
I’m not saying that Trump’s tactics are always the right ones. What I am saying is that Trump is the first post-Cold War President to clearly identify those interests which constitute American national security, and he is pursuing them with purpose. He is a tactically unpredictable but strategically consistent foreign policy realist. That has allowed the U.S. to regain the initiative globally, and it means that if Trump’s policies are successful they will be very difficult to reverse, regardless of what the career people in the State Department think.
I also think that Aaron is missing the big picture. Trump is restructuring the basis on which the United States deals with other countries by basing it on mutual self-interest, which is the most and maybe the only durable foundation for international relations.
As an example, our natural allies in the Middle East are those nations that oppose radical Islam, want a stable equilibrium in the region, and are interested in economic development. Trump has clearly identified those as America’s priority interests as well, as evidenced by his speech in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. Trump's diplomacy based on mutual interest produced the Abraham Accords in his first term, and there is a good chance those accords will expand to include, most prominently, Saudi Arabia – assuming either negotiations or Israeli military action can restore stability in Gaza.
If the Abraham Accords are expanded, no new post-Trump Administration will abandon them, any more than Biden abandoned the original arrangement. It’s true that Biden attempted to reverse Trump’s Iranian policy, and resurrect Obama’s, but that went nowhere; and now that the Israelis and the United States have decimated Iran’s proxy network and destroyed its nuclear program, it is not likely to happen again.
In Europe, the NATO alliance is growing in strength because of the admission of the Finns and Swedes, because Europe is relying on American rather than Russian energy, and because the other NATO allies, and especially Germany, are increasing their defense spending. Trump has been arguing for the latter two since his first term, and the Europeans have now agreed. They also have recognized that it's in their interest to find an end to the war in Ukraine that stabilizes Eastern Europe. There is tension about the terms of any cease fire, but the recent Oval Office meeting between Trump and the other NATO leaders was a striking example of the renewed strength of American leadership.
In Trump's first term, he laid a new basis for our East Asian alliances by clearly discontinuing the policy of engagement with China and recognizing that the U.S. is in an essentially adversarial position with Beijing. That was welcomed by our formal allies and other countries like Vietnam. The Administration is continuing to strengthen those partnerships, as for example by welcoming South Korean investment in America’s shipbuilding industry and encouraging Japan as it becomes more assertive in its own defense and in defense of the region.
Again, Biden didn’t reverse the fundamental redirection of our China policy which Trump established. Neither will any succeeding Administration, because it is based on a recognition of vital national interests that our allies share.
I’m not saying that Trump’s tactics are always the right ones. What I am saying is that Trump is the first post-Cold War President to clearly identify those interests which constitute American national security, and then to pursue them with purpose. He is a tactically unpredictable but strategically consistent foreign policy realist. That has allowed the U.S. to regain the initiative globally, and it means that Trump’s policies will be difficult to reverse, regardless of what the career people in the State Department think.
I think this whole take misses the mark. The 'Great Man" theory of history is something that historians like to talk about, but it is not reality. Great men arise because they get in front of a movement or trend that has been building, and they ride it or lead it or help shape it. Their greatness is in sensing the movement and then getting in front of it.
Trump has gotten in front of movement that has been building since the early 1990s when the Soviet Union went extinct. The US is returning to its pre-WWII history of not going after monsters abroad. Worldwide communism was an existential threat to the US which caused us to take the lead in global affairs by rebuilding Europe and Japan as well as developing alliances to fight communism which was using the ravages left by WWII to spread itself. We allowed protective tariffs for other nations to help them recover and to build alliances against communism (USSR and China). That period of history is over. Europe and Japan have been long rebuilt, and Russia is a third world nation that cannot even defeat its next-door neighbor - Ukraine. China is still troublesome, and we are working to contain them.
People tend to forget that this movement of America first - which has its roots in the1930s - began to resurface in the 1992 election where Ross Perot captured 20% of the popular vote by bringing attention to the "big sucking sound" that was hollowing out America. Trump flirted with the Reform Party back in the early 2000s and then led the remaking of the Republican Party.
JD Vance who lived the experience as he articulated in his book - Hillbilly Elegy - is the heir apparent to this movement and will most likely win a landslide victory in 2028 to solidify what Trump is instituting. America will not be the indispensable nation in the world, and we will not be propping up the rest of the world's economies. This is not 3D chess or a great man - it is the flow of history - which Trump got in front of.
I tend to agree that the attempts to suppress America First populism are failing, especially with younger generations as this Substack has mentioned previously.
My question in response to the fact (it seems like a factual statement to me) that Trump is undermining our reliability as an international partner would be this-
Do the negative benefits of that decline in reliability (less friendly trade, more complicated diplomacy, etc) in the long run outweigh the perceived positive outcomes of that decline (less reliance by our allies on US military hegemony, less foreign aid leaving the country, etc)?
I also think that Aaron is missing the big picture. Trump is restructuring the basis on which the United States deals with other countries by basing it on mutual self-interest, which is the most and maybe the only durable foundation for international relations.
As an example, our natural allies in the Middle East are those nations that oppose radical Islam, want a stable equilibrium in the region, and are interested in economic development. Trump has clearly identified those as America’s priority interests as well, as evidenced by his speech in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. Trump's diplomacy based on mutual interest produced the Abraham Accords in his first term, and there is a good chance those accords will expand to include, most prominently, Saudi Arabia – assuming either negotiations or Israeli military action can restore stability in Gaza.
If the Abraham Accords are expanded, no new post-Trump Administration will abandon them, any more than Biden abandoned the original arrangement. It’s true that Biden attempted to reverse Trump’s Iranian policy, and resurrect Obama’s, but that went nowhere; and now that the Israelis and the United States have decimated Iran’s proxy network and destroyed its nuclear program, it is not likely to happen again.
In Europe, the NATO alliance is growing in strength because of the admission of the Finns and Swedes, because Europe is relying on American rather than Russian energy, and because the other NATO allies, and especially Germany, are increasing their defense spending. Trump has been arguing for the latter two since his first term, and the Europeans have now accepted them. They also recognize that it is in their interests to stabilize Eastern Europe by finding an end to the Ukraine war. There is tension about the terms of any cease fire, but the recent Oval Office meeting between Trump and the other NATO leaders was a striking example of the renewed strength of American leadership.
In Trump's first term, he discontinued the policy of engagement with China and recognizing that the U.S. is in an essentially adversarial position with Beijing. That was welcomed by our formal allies and other countries like Vietnam. The Administration is continuing to strengthen those partnerships, as for example by welcoming South Korean investment in America’s shipbuilding industry and encouraging Japan as it becomes more assertive in its own defense and in defense of the region.
Again, Biden didn’t reverse the fundamental redirection of our China policy which Trump established. Neither will any succeeding Administration, because it is based on a recognition of vital national interests that our allies share.
I’m not saying that Trump’s tactics are always the right ones. What I am saying is that Trump is the first post-Cold War President to clearly identify those interests which constitute American national security, and he is pursuing them with purpose. He is a tactically unpredictable but strategically consistent foreign policy realist. That has allowed the U.S. to regain the initiative globally, and it means that if Trump’s policies are successful they will be very difficult to reverse, regardless of what the career people in the State Department think.
I also think that Aaron is missing the big picture. Trump is restructuring the basis on which the United States deals with other countries by basing it on mutual self-interest, which is the most and maybe the only durable foundation for international relations.
As an example, our natural allies in the Middle East are those nations that oppose radical Islam, want a stable equilibrium in the region, and are interested in economic development. Trump has clearly identified those as America’s priority interests as well, as evidenced by his speech in Saudi Arabia earlier this year. Trump's diplomacy based on mutual interest produced the Abraham Accords in his first term, and there is a good chance those accords will expand to include, most prominently, Saudi Arabia – assuming either negotiations or Israeli military action can restore stability in Gaza.
If the Abraham Accords are expanded, no new post-Trump Administration will abandon them, any more than Biden abandoned the original arrangement. It’s true that Biden attempted to reverse Trump’s Iranian policy, and resurrect Obama’s, but that went nowhere; and now that the Israelis and the United States have decimated Iran’s proxy network and destroyed its nuclear program, it is not likely to happen again.
In Europe, the NATO alliance is growing in strength because of the admission of the Finns and Swedes, because Europe is relying on American rather than Russian energy, and because the other NATO allies, and especially Germany, are increasing their defense spending. Trump has been arguing for the latter two since his first term, and the Europeans have now agreed. They also have recognized that it's in their interest to find an end to the war in Ukraine that stabilizes Eastern Europe. There is tension about the terms of any cease fire, but the recent Oval Office meeting between Trump and the other NATO leaders was a striking example of the renewed strength of American leadership.
In Trump's first term, he laid a new basis for our East Asian alliances by clearly discontinuing the policy of engagement with China and recognizing that the U.S. is in an essentially adversarial position with Beijing. That was welcomed by our formal allies and other countries like Vietnam. The Administration is continuing to strengthen those partnerships, as for example by welcoming South Korean investment in America’s shipbuilding industry and encouraging Japan as it becomes more assertive in its own defense and in defense of the region.
Again, Biden didn’t reverse the fundamental redirection of our China policy which Trump established. Neither will any succeeding Administration, because it is based on a recognition of vital national interests that our allies share.
I’m not saying that Trump’s tactics are always the right ones. What I am saying is that Trump is the first post-Cold War President to clearly identify those interests which constitute American national security, and then to pursue them with purpose. He is a tactically unpredictable but strategically consistent foreign policy realist. That has allowed the U.S. to regain the initiative globally, and it means that Trump’s policies will be difficult to reverse, regardless of what the career people in the State Department think.
Changing the basis of relationships is actually the exact sort of thing I'm talking about.
Sure, but unless I badly misread you, it was presented as almost entirely negative.
I think this whole take misses the mark. The 'Great Man" theory of history is something that historians like to talk about, but it is not reality. Great men arise because they get in front of a movement or trend that has been building, and they ride it or lead it or help shape it. Their greatness is in sensing the movement and then getting in front of it.
Trump has gotten in front of movement that has been building since the early 1990s when the Soviet Union went extinct. The US is returning to its pre-WWII history of not going after monsters abroad. Worldwide communism was an existential threat to the US which caused us to take the lead in global affairs by rebuilding Europe and Japan as well as developing alliances to fight communism which was using the ravages left by WWII to spread itself. We allowed protective tariffs for other nations to help them recover and to build alliances against communism (USSR and China). That period of history is over. Europe and Japan have been long rebuilt, and Russia is a third world nation that cannot even defeat its next-door neighbor - Ukraine. China is still troublesome, and we are working to contain them.
People tend to forget that this movement of America first - which has its roots in the1930s - began to resurface in the 1992 election where Ross Perot captured 20% of the popular vote by bringing attention to the "big sucking sound" that was hollowing out America. Trump flirted with the Reform Party back in the early 2000s and then led the remaking of the Republican Party.
JD Vance who lived the experience as he articulated in his book - Hillbilly Elegy - is the heir apparent to this movement and will most likely win a landslide victory in 2028 to solidify what Trump is instituting. America will not be the indispensable nation in the world, and we will not be propping up the rest of the world's economies. This is not 3D chess or a great man - it is the flow of history - which Trump got in front of.
Trump's accelerating it, but American reliability on the international stage has been in steep decline since at least 9/11.
I tend to agree that the attempts to suppress America First populism are failing, especially with younger generations as this Substack has mentioned previously.
My question in response to the fact (it seems like a factual statement to me) that Trump is undermining our reliability as an international partner would be this-
Do the negative benefits of that decline in reliability (less friendly trade, more complicated diplomacy, etc) in the long run outweigh the perceived positive outcomes of that decline (less reliance by our allies on US military hegemony, less foreign aid leaving the country, etc)?
Since Vietnam. Not just reputation for reliability, but also for sanity and competence in foreign affairs.