The Gerontocracy Rolls On

In a world where 94-year-old moguls and 75-year-old editors hold sway, is gerontocracy here to stay?

Simon Kuper at the Financial Times had another great column, this one about our gerontocracy, noting that 94 is the new 54 for moguls.

Rupert Murdoch’s media empire will pass to his eldest son Lachlan when (or if) the 94-year-old mogul dies. Rupert’s mother lived to 103, but that was before modern medical advances. Warren Buffett, who will step down from Berkshire Hathaway by the end of this year, aged 95, remarked recently: “I didn’t really start getting old, for some strange reason, until I was about 90.” Giorgio Armani told the FT, days before he died at the age of 91, “My greatest weakness is that I am in control of everything,” right down to micromanaging a museum exhibition.

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Moguls’ careers have grown to unprecedented lengths, thanks partly to innovations like stem-cell therapy and blood washing. This is helping to create a near-permanent power class of businesspeople who accompany us through our lives the way only a few royals did in the past. Murdoch, for instance, inherited his first Australian newspapers from his father in 1953, and has been influencing British politics since he bought the News of the World in 1969. These men tower over most elected politicians in the west, whose life expectancy in office might be four years or less. 

Longevity is its own kind of power. When a newly elected head of government enters the global engine room, admitted on their temporary pass, they encounter a few dozen life members who have been there for decades, are planning ahead for decades more, and know exactly how each lever of power works. These men own the websites where most voters spend their waking hours and have the networks and capital to buy control of each new technological trend. Note that two of the leading moneymakers from AI so far are Larry Ellison (aged 81) and Les Wexner (88).

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No wonder many of today’s political leaders aspire to upgrade to life membership of the power class…After all, the last four US presidents who died did so between the ages of 93 and 100 — older than any of their predecessors. The global political strongman cohort is already in its seventies, and as its average age increases, so will the gulf between its assumptions and those of young people. (Note the worldview of certain members of the power class as revealed by the Epstein files).

In 2018, UBS Wealth Management asked 5,000 people who had at least $1mn in investable assets how long they expected to live. Fifty-three per cent thought they would reach 100. Among those with billions to invest, expectations are probably higher. The current lot of tech tycoons, minted by their twenties, is set to be the longest-lasting in business history. Their main limitation — mortality — may eventually be lifted. They certainly have no intention of bowing out at the tender age of 94. British or French prime ministers will come and go like fruit flies in comparison.

This shows that even many of the oldest Boomers are not likely to go away anytime soon. Many pre-Boomers are still around.

While many of these older leaders are highly accomplished and ultra-competent people - they wouldn’t still be on top if they weren’t - this aging of our leadership, and the general aging of our society has many negative implications. It’s part of what underlies our general lack of dynamism and the rise of decadence (in the Douthatian sense of the term).

The rise of the 90+ year old business mogul shows that gerontocracy, something that many people think is on the way out as the Boomers finally start retreating from the scene, might become even more extensive and go on much longer than we think. It’s something to watch for sure.

Speaking of which, Christianity Today magazine, the Billy Graham-founded flagship publication of evangelicalism, just named Marvin Olasky as its new editor-in-chief. Current EIC Russell Moore wants to focus on creating his own content instead of editing - and why wouldn’t he?

The most interesting thing about this announcement is that Olasky is 75 years old. Olasky has been a major figure in evangelical journalism since the 1980s. He ran World magazine - he built it into what it is today, basically - for about 28 years from 1994 to 2021. He retired from the magazine in protest over their creation of an opinion section edited by Al Mohler and outside of his purview.

Olasky was 71 at the time. He could have devoted himself to writing books, the occasional column, teaching, and mentoring younger journalists. But obviously he was itching to get back in the game. He joined CT as an editor, and now, well past the age where many people are retired, he’s taking up the top job there.

We don’t know why he was named EIC. This might possibly be a de facto interim position. Christianity Today doesn’t presently have a president after Timothy Dalrymple left for the top job at the Templeton Foundation. It would make sense if they decided they wanted to find a new president before selecting a new long term EIC.

But assuming Olasky wants to say in the game, he could potentially keep that job for a decade or more, assuming he stays healthy and doesn’t fall out with the board. He’s obviously very good at running a magazine and shows no obvious signs of being interested in retirement. Maybe he could even end up being one of those 90 year old moguls.

Being born in 1950, Olasky is still well within the older cohort of Boomers. This shows that Boomers could continue dominating institutions like Christianity Today for a long time to come.

This also shows the characteristics of Generation X that have tended to undermine them in succeeding the Boomers. Russell Moore is basically my age. He actually gets the top editorial job at CT. But apparently he decided he didn’t want it, preferring to focus on his own writing, which is focused around theologically informed cultural analysis.

Generation X has not proven to have an orientation towards institution building, leadership, or transformation. The Boomers were incredible institution builders. Is there any Gen X evangelical leaders who is building institutions the way the Boomers built them (think: like Tim Keller)?

We prefer to stand back, a bit detached, observing and analyzing rather than running the show. Still afraid of selling out perhaps. As I said, who wouldn’t rather focus on their own writing and podcasting rather than managing people and a publication? But then again, I’m Gen X so naturally I think that way too.

In this case, Gen X did get the chance to run a major organization, but decided to hand the reins back to the Boomers.

This move also shows the way inner party Boomers have been insulated from the consequences of their own diversity push. Olasky and CT magazine have both looked favorably towards the diversity movement. The magazine could have hired, for example, Katelyn Beaty to be its editor in chief. She was previously the managing editor of CT, is now the editorial director at the book imprint Brazos Press, and has the expansive network necessary to recruit writers and other talent. She’s aligned with CT’s editorial positioning, a Millennial, and would be, to the best of my knowledge, the first female EIC of a magazine that has long been pro-egalitarian on gender. Instead they hire a 75 year old white guy.

Again, we don’t know all the circumstances here. Maybe Olasky is a de facto interim and they will hire someone like her in the not too distant future. Maybe they tried to recruit her and she said No.

But it does show that as younger white men starting out today face DEI barriers to admissions to college, getting hired as seminary professors, etc., ultra-connected older white male Boomers like Olasky face no such barriers to continuing to get plum positions.

Whatever happens with CT, as these items show, gerontocracy and inter-generational dynamics are going to be one of the key forces shaping the coming years.